AIR FREIGHT RATES SURGE DESPITE DECLINING GLOBAL VOLUMES: A SIGNAL OF SUPPLY CHAIN STRESS

According to the latest data from WorldACD Market Data, the global average spot rate increased by +3% in week 15 (April 6–12, 2026), reaching USD 3.76/kg.
This represents a +37% year-on-year increase and more than +40% growth compared to late February, when geopolitical tensions escalated.

1. Regional Rate Movements

• North America: +6% WoW, reaching USD 2.73/kg (+52% YoY)
• Africa: +4% WoW, reaching USD 2.95/kg (+62% YoY)
• Asia Pacific: +2% WoW, reaching USD 4.95/kg (+24% YoY)
• Middle East & South Asia (MESA): -1% WoW to USD 4.81/kg, but still +66% YoY

Notably, the MESA region remains under significant pressure due to ongoing capacity disruptions, despite gradual recovery efforts.

2. The Paradox: Rising Rates, Falling Demand

Regional declines include:

• Europe: -15% (Easter holiday impact)
• Africa: -7%
• Asia Pacific: -3%
• MESA: -3%
• North America: -2%

👉 This creates a clear paradox: declining demand but increasing freight rates, driven largely by limited capacity and rising operational costs.

3. Capacity Constraints & Supply Chain Pressure

While global air cargo capacity increased slightly by +1% WoW, several bottlenecks remain:

• MESA capacity rose by +7% but is still about -20% YoY
• Strong demand persists due to disruptions in ocean freight
• Increased reliance on dedicated freighter aircraft

This surge is largely driven by severe congestion and delays in ocean freight, pushing cargo toward air transport.

4. Market Outlook: Volatile and Uncertain

Key factors likely to sustain high rates:

• Rising jet fuel costs
• Ongoing geopolitical risks
• Persistent capacity shortages
• Slow recovery of ocean freight flows

👉 Outlook: Air freight rates are expected to remain elevated in the near to mid-term if disruptions continue.

5. Recommendations for Import-Export Businesses