Ocean Freight Rates Up 74% YoY, Localized Empty Container Shortages, Air Freight Costs Rising: FDI Manufacturers Should Adjust Import Plans for Q3/2026

Three unfavorable factors are converging simultaneously in Q3/2026: sharply rising ocean freight rates, localized shortages of empty containers, and increasing air freight costs ahead of the peak shipping season. For FDI manufacturers with regular raw material imports, this is no longer a market situation that can be managed reactively. Every week of delayed planning adjustments increases supply chain risks.

Why Is the Ocean Freight Market Becoming More Volatile?

The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI)—the industry’s benchmark for container export freight rates from Shanghai and one of the most widely recognized indicators of the global container shipping market—has increased by 74% compared to the same period in 2025. This significant increase reflects the growing imbalance between shipping capacity and cargo demand across major trade routes.

One of the primary drivers is the ongoing geopolitical tension in the Middle East, which continues to affect vessel movements through the Suez Canal. Many shipping lines have been forced to reroute vessels, resulting in longer transit times, lower fleet utilization, and reduced effective shipping capacity. As vessels spend more time completing each voyage while cargo demand remains strong, freight rates continue to rise and booking space becomes increasingly limited.

The impact is no longer limited to long-haul routes. As shipping lines prioritize vessel capacity for the highest-yield trades such as Asia–North America and Asia–Northern Europe, capacity on intra-Asia services—including shipments from China, Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan to Vietnam—has also tightened. These are the primary sourcing markets for most FDI manufacturing facilities operating in Vietnam today.

Localized Empty Container Shortages: A Booking Challenge Rather Than a Pricing Issue

Alongside rising freight rates, the market is experiencing localized shortages of empty containers at several major export ports across Asia. While not unprecedented—similar but more severe disruptions occurred during 2020–2021—the current shortage is significant enough to delay bookings and increase the likelihood of rollovers, where cargo is postponed to a later vessel because no container or vessel space is available.

Unlike the global container shortage experienced during the pandemic, today’s situation is localized by individual ports and trade lanes rather than affecting the entire global network. This means FDI manufacturers can still mitigate risks if they receive timely market information and work with freight forwarders that have strong carrier networks and alternative routing capabilities.

Under normal market conditions, booking cargo 1–2 weeks before cargo readiness is generally sufficient. Under current market conditions, companies should extend their booking window to at least 3–4 weeks, especially for shipments with tight production deadlines or those originating from ports currently experiencing container shortages.

Air Freight Costs Are Rising Ahead of Peak Season: The Backup Option Is Becoming More Expensive

For many FDI manufacturers, air freight serves as the emergency solution whenever sea freight encounters unexpected disruptions, such as shipment delays, container rollovers, or urgent raw material requirements. While this contingency option remains available, it has become significantly more expensive than it was six months ago.

Air freight rates are increasing ahead of the annual peak season, which typically runs from August through November as global retailers replenish inventory for year-end shopping demand. For manufacturers in sectors such as electronics, garments, and consumer goods, this seasonal pattern is familiar. However, this year it coincides with elevated ocean freight costs and increasingly limited vessel space, leaving businesses with fewer cost-effective transportation alternatives.

As a result, logistics teams are facing a difficult balancing act. Choosing sea freight increases the risk of delays and rollovers, while relying on air freight significantly raises transportation costs. Meanwhile, production schedules often remain unchanged, making supply chain planning considerably more challenging.