FDI Export Growth Surged 32% in the First Five Months

Challenge 1: Ocean Freight Rates Remain Elevated with No Clear Signs of Easing Before Q4

Shipping market analysts believe that the current freight rate rally could continue at least through the end of July 2026 as shipping demand continues to rise while available capacity remains constrained. From August through October, Peak Season Surcharges (PSS) imposed by shipping lines will add another layer of costs, typically ranging from USD 200–500 per container depending on the trade lane.

For FDI manufacturers exporting electronics, garments, or footwear to the U.S. and Europe under CIF or DAP terms, these freight increases directly reduce profit margins on each shipment. For manufacturers purchasing raw materials under FOB terms from suppliers across Asia, inbound transportation costs also increase, ultimately affecting manufacturing costs.

Even more concerning is the fact that many manufacturers established their entire 2026 logistics budgets based on Q1 freight rates, which were substantially lower than the actual market conditions expected during Q3 and Q4. This budget gap needs to be reported and adjusted immediately rather than waiting until the end-of-quarter freight invoices arrive.

Challenge 2: Ongoing Geopolitical Uncertainty in the Middle East

The prolonged U.S.–Iran conflict and continued congestion around the Strait of Hormuz have pushed crude oil prices up by more than 60% compared to the beginning of the year, reaching approximately USD 100 per barrel. Rising oil prices flow directly into ocean freight costs through Bunker Adjustment Factors (BAF) and war risk surcharges while simultaneously increasing domestic transportation costs due to higher fuel prices.

P&I Clubs and major reinsurers have withdrawn war-risk insurance coverage across the region, making the Persian Gulf virtually inaccessible from an insurance perspective. This creates particular challenges for FDI manufacturers importing chemicals or industrial raw materials from the Middle East or exporting products to Middle Eastern markets, as these trade lanes are now subject to additional surcharges and vessel schedule uncertainty.

Challenge 3: Slower Export Growth While Delivery Deadline Pressure Remains

Export growth is expected to slow during the second half of 2026 as the high comparison base gradually takes effect and consumer demand in the United States and Europe recovers unevenly. In practice, this often translates into overseas buyers reducing order volumes or requesting greater flexibility in delivery schedules, while manufacturers have already planned production and vessel bookings based on higher projected volumes.

The mismatch between production planning and actual customer demand during Q3 and Q4 creates hidden costs: vessel space booked before cargo is ready, or cargo ready but unable to secure vessel space during peak season. Both situations generate unnecessary costs and require proactive management.

Challenge 4: Increasing Compliance Pressure as Shipment Volumes Grow

Vietnam’s Ministry of Finance has issued Circular No. 86/2026 governing tax administration for import and export goods, which has officially taken effect. This important regulation implements the 2025 Law on Tax Administration while strengthening the legal framework and accelerating digital transformation across customs administration.

In practice, as export volumes increase during the second half of the year, the number of customs declarations grows proportionally, and every declaration must fully comply with the new requirements. Manufacturers that have not updated their customs declaration procedures or revised document templates accordingly face an increased risk of systematic declaration errors during the busiest export season.

Challenge 5: Container Driver Shortages and Infrastructure Congestion Slow Domestic Transportation

As discussed in our previous article, approximately 25–30% of Vietnam’s tractor units remain idle due to a shortage of container truck drivers. During the second half of the year, when export volumes increase simultaneously across the market, this shortage is expected to create bottlenecks in transporting cargo from manufacturing plants to ports—an area that relatively few FDI manufacturers currently include in their logistics contingency planning.

Despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and rising logistics costs, Vietnam’s foreign trade performance remained highly resilient during the first quarter of 2026, with total import-export turnover reaching nearly USD 250 billion, up 23% year-on-year. However, this strong growth has also placed heavier pressure on domestic logistics infrastructure—particularly industrial zones and port access corridors—creating a greater risk of congestion during the peak shipping months later this year.